High fire risk in N.J. this weekend, but rain may finally return next week

While scattered light rain was tapering off in parts of South Jersey early Friday morning, the latest stretch of dry conditions for most of the state is expected to last through at least the middle of next week.
A sunny, dry weekend with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s is in the forecast for New Jersey, the National Weather Service said. Rain-free weather will continue through the first half of next week, with forecasters saying there’s a 30% to 40% chance of showers on Wednesday night and Thursday.
In response to the long stretch of dry weather and steady drop in water storage levels, the state Department of Environmental Protection declared a drought warning in New Jersey on Wednesday, so any potential rain will be a welcome sight in the Garden State.
“It looks like some rain and unsettled weather is on the horizon, and the specifics will become more clear over the coming days,” the weather service office in Mount Holly said in its Friday morning forecast discussion.
The weather service’s New York office, which covers Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Union counties, struck a similar tone.
“A needed widespread rainfall is nevertheless appearing to be more likely,” the New York office said in its Friday morning forecast discussion.
Most of the state has severe drought conditions, the U.S. Drought Monitor said. Even more extreme drought conditions are in effect in Atlantic as well as in most of Ocean and Burlington counties and parts of Gloucester, Camden, Cumberland and Cape May counties.
On top of the persistent dry weather, a fire weather watch will be in effect for the state from Saturday morning to Saturday evening due to dry conditions and very low humidity as several wildfires continue to burn or smolder across the state. Overnight lows will be in the mid-30s to about 40 degrees.
A fire weather watch means critical fire weather conditions are forecasted, the weather service said.
UPDATE: The National Weather Service has issued a red flag fire warning for all 21 counties in New Jersey, effective from 7 a.m. Saturday through 6 p.m. Saturday. The fire warning also covers New York City, Long Island and the Lower Hudson Valley.
In Passaic County, where a 2,300-plus acre wildfire in West Milford is now 75% contained, the weather service said 10 to 15 mph winds might gust up to 30 mph. The relative humidity will be as low as a bone-dry 27%.
Friday will be also be dry and sunny, with highs mainly in the mid- to upper 50s. It will be a bit windy, with some gusts up to 20 mph possible, forecasters say. Those temperatures are typical for mid-November.
There’s no fire weather watch on Friday, but AccuWeather.com says conditions are conducive for fires to break out.
Coastal flood advisories are also in effect in New Jersey on Friday with a full moon showing tonight. Minor tidal flooding is taking place on Friday morning, according to the weather service.
Most areas of New Jersey went more than a month without any rain until some fell Sunday night into Monday morning.
Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to NJ.com.
Jeff Goldman may be reached at [email protected].